Your location??Home > News > Newsinfo
-
NEWS
- The rare earth enterprises are still facing greater pressurePublished??2012??11??16??
- November 9, SW research reports that multiple factors are responsible for the rare earth market rebound, the continuation of the real needs of the industry is not obvious recovery down butterfly effect. By the macroeconomic impact of the rare earth market is still in the search for the bottom of the recovery in demand and replenishment market still needs some time, the industry's enterprises still face greater pressure to perform. Recommended to continue to wait for the arrival of the needs improvement and profitability inflection point.
The report pointed out that the shares rose susceptible to rare earth prices is expected to trigger the most sensitive of Baotou Steel Rare Earth. Rare earth prices is expected, if confirmed, the stock along with a continuous rise; rare earth prices expected if they are falsifiable, stock prices usually brief rebound after the fall. In addition, the sensitivity of the price of rare earth prices: Baotou Steel Rare Earth Zhong Ke San Huan> Ningbo Yunsheng, the order reflects not only the differences between the different business model, but also reflect the market more stable investment preferences, Baotou Steel Rare Earth performance strongest cyclical rise or rebound cycle can get the highest return on investment, the largest decline in the down cycle will assume the risk.
The report pointed out that multiple factors are responsible for the rare earth market rebound, a substantial rise in the presence of resistance. Recently, manufacturers discontinued insured, some enterprises and traders purchase national Shouchu expected, rare earth market rebound, praseodymium, neodymium oxide, for example, offer up to the present by the end of October, the lowest about 26 million / ton about 30-32 yuan / ton, previously rare earth prices down in the process, 30 million / ton volume, the smaller the amount of money you can pry rare earth prices. Other hand, after the process of the rare-earth prices 35-40 million / ton range lock-plate relatively dense, rare earth rising prices there are also a lot of resistance. Current round of rare earth market rebound if they are falsifiable, price or go back to fundamentals.
Report that, despite recent speculative demand fill inventory behavior, but from the middle and lower reaches of enterprise, needs no noticeable recovery, the majority of business-to-fill inventory is still very cautious, overall keep destocking strategy. Thus, the short-term rare earth market rebound from more speculative capital driven, rather than real demand recovery, downward butterfly effect is still dominant. Midstream and downstream businesses is still in the process of de-stocking: Zhong Ke San Huan, Ningbo Yunsheng, for example, inventory levels remained low since the third quarter of 11 years; the upstream business inventories high: the middle and lower reaches of inventory led to the upper reaches of the rare earth unsalable, Baotou Steel Rare Earth cases continued to rise since the third quarter of 11-year overall inventory levels.
Demand inflection point, continue to wait for the report to maintain the industry "neutral" rating. Shen Wanhong outlook forecast global GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 12-year 2.9%, unchanged from the third quarter. Where domestic, EU fourth quarter GDP growth of 7.7% -0.5%, a slight improvement compared to the third quarter, the fourth quarter GDP growth in the United States, Japan 1.8%, 0.7%, the growth rate is lower than the third quarter. By the macroeconomic impact of the rare earth market is still in the search for the bottom of the recovery in demand and replenishment market needs some time, it is recommended that continue to wait for the arrival of needs improvement and profitability inflection point. The fourth quarter, as of now, the rare earth market overall downturn, neodymium oxide, praseodymium average price of about 32 million, down 51% year-on-year, down 12%, industry enterprises still face greater pressure to perform.
The butterfly effect: Due to the rare earth industry inventory disturbance, industry downstream minor fluctuations in demand may cause significant fluctuations of demand in the industry upstream. Downward butterfly effect: Industry downstream demand deterioration ?? raw material decline in value of consistency ?? downstream enterprises are expected to begin to form: the weaker demand destocking to circumvent the NdFeB price downside risk (aggregate demand ?? 5%) ?? midstream permanent magnet: weaker demand destocking (aggregate demand ?? 10%) ?? in the upper reaches of traders: weaker demand to the inventory of rare earth prices to circumvent speculative loss (aggregate demand ?? 20%) ?? upstream rare earth enterprises in order to avoid the risk of rare earth prices: rare earth sharp decline in demand, inventory rapid rise (total demand ?? 25%) ?? rare earth prices ?? raw material decline in value the consistency expected to be strengthened ?? ...; contrary, we can get upwards butterfly effect.
-
ZheJiang DongYang Strong Electron Co., Ltd. All rights reserved ??ICP??11024802??
-
Technical Support???????????